Travel Stocks And Shares: Risk Versus Profit Analysis

Investors know that oil prices, terrorism, and corporate debt restructuring, things that really cannot be controlled, have a large influence on the stock market. Many investors steer clear of airline stocks and shares for that reason. They can't control one of their biggest expenses (fuel) and an act of terrorism can severely damage the industry.

Why are luxury cruise stocks any better? Rising fuel expenses along with Hurricane Katrina led to lower stock prices for companies like Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Those two cruise lines account for about 75 percent of the cruise industry, around the world.

When George Allen Smith IV, out of Connecticut, vanished while on a Royal Caribbean cruise, the industry received a lot of unfavorable publicity.

Certainly, you'll find many negative aspects for cruise stocks and shares, but some investors are bullish. First, there is no direct indication that the disappearing honeymooner from Connecticut has hurt ticket prices. Values on these stocks and shares also look good.

Carnival Corporation trades at 16 times estimated 2006 profits. Its historic range is 10 to 30 times earnings. Royal Caribbean trades at 14 times projected '06 earnings. Its historic range is 5 to 24 times earnings. Growth potential is strong as only 4 percent of Americans have ever gone on a cruise.

When considering cruise stocks, remember the potential for loss. A sharp boost in fuel prices or another terrorist attack would likely have a harmful impact on cruise stocks.

If you're undecided about this investment, do you know how to short a stock? This could be a much better route for you, especially if you're encountering corporate debt restructuring.

In my opinion the risk outweighs the achievable reward as I do not anticipate cruise lines to significantly outperform the broader market.

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